World Affairs – June 23, 2020
Four years ago, I wrote an article explaining how there were ulterior motives behind the US allowing Indians to become CEO’s of big American corporations. Now, India has gone further down that path and has almost definitely sealed its fate as a satellite of the US. The consequence will be that India will be stuck in the middle-income trap forever and won’t have much sovereignty in the spheres of economics or foreign policy.
Let me explain the basics of geopolitics. A superpower like the US maintains its status by keeping all the potential rivals weak. Here’s a chart of how the US would like the world to look like:
When one of the rivals gets a bit too strong, it will be attacked mercilessly. For example, by 2012, Russia’s GDP had grown 1000% in a decade. Immediately, the US created problems in Ukraine, brought down the price of oil, attacked Ruble and destroyed half its value, and has been imposing sanctions on Russia ever since. And by trying to create frictions between Russia and Germany, the US kills two birds in one stone — keeping two competitors down at the same time. (Just like how India-China conflicts will be America’s wet dream).
In the 1980s, Japan came under severe attack after Japanese cars and semiconductors started challenging the US. Every propaganda that’s used against China now was used against Japan. Result? Plaza Accord, which killed the Japanese semiconductor sector, forced Yen to double in value, blackmailed Japanese auto companies into moving manufacturing to the US, and basically forced Japan to commit suicide. Japan never recovered.
This is why Chinese leaders always said, “Hide your strength and bide your time.” But when ZTE announced world’s first 5G call in February 2018, the US imposed sanctions on ZTE within two months, and forced the company to pay big fines and accept American supervisors. Similar attacks on Huawei, dozens of other successful Chinese hi-tech companies, and on entire China has been going on since 2017. Why? China today has grown a bit too much:
In purchasing power, China surpassed the US in 2014. By 2030, China will very likely be the largest economy by nominal GDP as well.
How India was Recruited and Groomed
In the war against China, the US has chosen India to be the big pawn, as traditional US “allies” like Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia have all signaled that they don’t want to be a part of WW3. To give credit to the US, they have been planning on recruiting India for a long time. Let’s expound on this more …
First, one must understand the Faustian bargain that India made with the US. America opened up its job market for Indians, and India opened up its entire economy for the US! And the USA wins in both sides of the deal. Get the brightest workers from India; and in return get two things: (1) Access to 1.3 billion consumers, and (2) a geopolitical puppet state.
Democracy and Free Market are propaganda slogans. Why hasn’t the US tried to spread democracy in Saudi Arabia? No, that would be very dangerous — what if a populist Saudi guy gets elected and kicks out the US military base and starts selling oil in Yuan? That would be the end of USA’s global hegemony.
And “free market” was great until China started to win. Now the US likes protectionism and hates WTO, which the US created! When Walmart buys FlipKart — India’s successful e-commerce startup — that’s cheered on as free market. But do you think the US would have allowed FlipKart to buy Walmart? Of course, not.
The Indian executives in America will never be able to go back to India and start competing corporations. The US has made sure that it has enough control over Indian banks, VC’s and other financial structures to guarantee that there won’t be any funding for Indian versions of Intel, Microsoft, Cisco, Google, Facebook, Amazon etc.
Totally Different Success Stories for China and India
Compare India to China, which competes with the US for the global market in all areas of technology, commerce, finance etc. There are 7 Indian companies in the Global Fortune 500 list; and there are 120 mainland Chinese companies on that list! India — 7; China — 120.
China beats India in every metric — GDP-per-capita (5x), international patents (28x), foreign exchange reserves (6x), manufacturing output (10x), foreign trade (6x), electricity generation (3x), installed solar capacity (5x), rice yield per hectare (2.5x), median wealth of an adult (13x), e-commerce market (20x), bullet trains (35,000 Km in China versus Zero in India), poverty reduction, life expectancy, healthcare and the list goes on.
Keep in mind that, in 1991, India and China were at the same level for all those metrics.
What changed? Well, India and China both opened up to the world, but in different ways. China protected its sovereignty, while India blindly embraced “reforms.” Now, it’s likely that India will turn out like any other numerous developing nations — Brazil, Mexico etc. — which will always be poorer and obedient “allies.”
To totally control a country, one must control 8 primary institutions or sectors: finance, business, media, technology, politicians, military, farming, and natural resources.
You can look at India and clearly see US’ total dominance in all these sectors.
Looking at all the Indian media and the trolls on social media, it’s clear that Indians have been completely brainwashed to hate China.
Every Ally is Disposable
What Indians forget is that how the US can easily switch back and forth, turning allies into enemies or other way around. This is geopolitics and is not understood by people who get carried away with emotions of the moment. Let us take a look at some examples:
1947-1992: The US supported Pakistan and often opposed India. All the jihadists in Kashmir were supplied with US weapons in the 1980s. Yeah, Bin Laden was also America’s BFF. After the collapse of the USSR, the US swiftly dumped Pakistan and Afghanistan.
1972: To fight the USSR, the US embraced China in 1972. That love lasted for about 40 years, when Obama declared a “Pivot to Asia” to contain China.
WW2: The US partnered with Russia during WW2 to defeat Hitler. Stalin was America’s BFF, and Russia destroyed 70% of the Nazi military. However, within a few weeks after WW2, generals in the US were considering dropping nuclear bombs on Russia! (Kill your ally and take over the world!)
Hitler and Nazis: Hitler and Nazi conglomerates were funded by Wall Street and Rockefeller before WW2. Then after WW2, all the top Nazi scientists were brought to the US under CIA’s covert “Operation Paperclip.” Nazi scientists got top jobs in NASA! And Nazis all over Europe were recruited by the USA to fight the Soviet Union! Yes, it makes your head spin.
Saddam Hussein: In the 1970s and 1980s, Saddam Hussein was America’s friend and pawn to attack Iran. After ten years of brutal war, Saddam’s value for the US had expired.
Syria 2011-2020: The US armed Al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Kurds to attack Assad. Anything it takes to achieve geopolitical goals. There’s no morality. As US Secretary of State Pompeo boasted, “We stole, we cheated, we lied.”
The list of American Machiavellian schemes goes on. If India thinks that the American boyfriend is going to marry her and happily live ever after, Indians are too naive and don’t understand geopolitics at all.
No, China shouldn’t be India’s enemy.
For 2000 years, the two largest economies in the world were China and India. Guess how many wars they fought during those prosperous years? ZERO!
Ten years ago, there was a visionary concept called BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). What happened to it?
A smart India will stay friends with the US and, at the same time, leverage China to make peace with Pakistan. That will be the wisest and Nobel prize-deserving ingenuity. Freeze border disputes for a few years and focus on growth, trade and peace. Don’t become a victim of the divide-and-rule playbook.
Imagine if India could get cheap oil and gas from Central Asia, transported through Pakistan — that will solve India’s future energy problems. Encourage China to move some of its manufacturing to India — especially electric cars/buses, which will reduce pollution; hire China to build housing projects for tens of millions of people stuck in Indian slums; and use China’s expertise to build high-speed rail.
India should also join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has more than 120 countries as members, including European nations such as Italy and Greece. India can learn a lot from China — for example, how China plans 5, 10, 40 years in advance; and how China has laser-focus attention and resolute meritocracy. There are numerous areas where India and China can cooperate and also compete in healthy ways.
As a final warning, India shouldn’t become a pawn of a disastrous war that will murder the “Asian century” in its infancy.